On the 5th September this year, I asked the Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay what level of mortality he would consider acceptable in the event of a No-Deal Brexit. He dismissed my question, answering that the medicines industry had gone above and beyond to ensure sufficient supplies. I am sure that both suppliers and our NHS have been working flat out to plan for No-Deal, but it’s not enough.
Now we’re just days before we are due to leave and we’re nowhere near ready. This report from the National Audit Office today on NHS readiness and the potential disruption to medicine supplies makes extremely worrying reading, but it’s not a surprise.
The report acknowledges that there is no way of knowing what may happen at the UK/EU border when the UK leaves the EU, with ministers asking government departments to be prepared for a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’.
This is based on assumptions that the flow of goods across the channel could be reduced to 40-60% of current levels on day one, not returning to close to current levels until 12 months after leaving the EU. Over half (7,000) of all medicines are estimated to come to the UK from or via the EU, with a further 450,000-500,000 different types of medical supplies that are used by the NHS and distributed to hospitals, care homes, dental practices, pharmacies and individuals at home.
The Treasury will be allocating £150million to the Department for Transport to secure freight capacity from October, to prioritise medical supplies amongst other critical goods, however the procurement process to employ the necessary companies to operate this service is still ongoing. I’m greatly concerned that the report warns that there is limited time available to complete the procurement process: it has started later than anticipated, and now depends on the process ‘running smoothly’. Beyond that, there is further uncertainty and risk whether the successful operators will be able to mobilise quickly enough, and it is acknowledged that only some of the service will be ready to operate in time, with much of it only ready a month after leaving.
So much uncertainty; with departments having to work on the basis of untested assumptions determined by ministers, it’s clear that leaving without a deal presents a level of risk that no competent or moral leader should ever remotely consider. A no deal Brexit could spell disaster for the most vulnerable people in Britain.